When is a business idea too late?

Peter Thiel has a concept of Last Mover Advantage, for example companies like Google (the last search engine) and Microsoft (the last operating system). The idea that being first to market, is a tactic not a strategy. Being later allows you to study the endgame first.

Steve Blank has written about how being the first mover is a disadvantage, and that fast followers (early market leaders) had better long term success on average.

Andy Grove said that companies need to offer a 10x improvement to entice customers to a product. John Gourville wrote an article that stated inventors overestimate their invention by 3x, and customers overestimate their current solution by 3x (endowment effect) so you need to be 3x3 = 9x better. This is much easier when you have a yard stick to measure yourself by. This also highlights the problem with the “we are better” strategy - easier to be different than better.

The point? Worrying that you’re late is one of the signs of a good idea.